Experts Are Often Wrong

The Real Time Economics division of the Wall Street Journal looked at the experts’ forecast for 2015 for various sectors of the American economy . They  were provided last January.

1.Experts Avreage forecast for oil $63 pb

Actual December 29 was $38 pb

2. Inflation , average expert forecast 1.6%

Actual , as of November 0.4%

3. Federal Funds Rate expert forecast 0.89

Actual was 0.375

4. Real Domestic Product expert forecast 3%

Actual 2.1%

5. House prices expert forecast 4.1%

Actual 6.1%

So ?  Nothing is a guarantee. Always add a little common sense , a component unavailable in great quantities these days it seems.

 

 

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