Everyone is in a tizzy. China is falling back to earth . And soaring up in debt. Peel it all away and that’s what you get.
The state owned companies have been borrowing like crazy. The Chinese Government has an aversion ,still , to market base solutions . Like , let some go, my man, and the quicker you will get to stop this downward spiral . You cannot spend your way to prosperity. The global ratings firm, Fitch , has said that the Chinese debt is 242% of GDP up from 214% last year. That is more than US or Japan, neither sparkling on that measure either.
But this is really what has everyone spooked i.e. the growth in the debt and secondly , the inability of the Government to signal meaningful , market based means of arresting this.
On any score , now , China will see slower growth . How slow ?
It will depend on the how it deals with these two factors , I submit, even though there are other factors , obviously .