Remember , Forecasts are Just That , ‘Guesses’

Oh, boy are we reminded of that this morning.

First, IEA( International Energy Agency)  ,that ‘reputable’ much watched agency , has to amend its earlier forecast of a few months back on oil . They now say they see weaker demand going forward , and hence a knock on any price rise . Europe and China seem to be seeing weaker demand. Surprise, surprise.

And then OPEC announces that they see greater supply  outside the cartel , like the US , Nigeria .  Surprise, surprise.

These groups employ scores of economists / experts and they  pour over all this data, formulae , etc.

Since Adam Smith , if not before, some common sense people have been saying that trying to determine/ predict  human activity is a crazy idea. But , of course, there are many, the majority it seems, who try and squeeze a formula here and there, regulate excessively , and spend endless effort attempting to do the impossible: predict economic activity.

The market, the free flow of goods and services , human inaction and action , loss and failure , innovation and risk still are the best ideas around and cannot be regulated and controlled .

Good to see that it is still operative , at least in the oil sector.

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