Are the Experts Ever Right?

Just go to the Bank of Canada website and read their latest economic outlook. Great example of economic ‘gobblygook’.

Once again they have to downgrade the prospects for the Canadian Economy , now down to 1.1% from 1.3% from 1.7%. Why do they almost always over reach ? If we in our own lives were off like the Bank and other experts we would would be thought to be unwell. But these guys keep getting it wrong and yet putting on this brave, honest face.

This time it’s exports have not rebounded to the extent thought(. Surprise, surprise) and now the housing industry likely slowdown , thanks to the Federal Government ‘s new mortgage rules and the BC foreign buyers tax.

Of course, the bank cannot talk about the increasing debt of the Federal Government rising in one year over $30billion and guarteeed to rise by at least that much in the next few years . And our productivity . Why not talk about that ? The Americans have better productivity than us, plain and simple. The last global competitiveness report saw Canada  10th , but America 3rd.

The other point is that it is sad when all of our attention is on one to two per cent growth rather than saying we have to get to 3 to 5 per cent. It’s like the NHL team trying to get to the playoffs , forgetting that the goal is to win the cup.

If you are not aiming high then your programs and policies won’t either , and that mediocrity is your goal —exactly where we are now.

So if your National Bank is not talking debt , and productivity and thinks that monetary  policy will do it plus some more government fiscal stimulus just look at the performance on that!



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