Estimates of risk (also called probability) are theoretical, mathematical constructs based on generalities—they are not predictions of the future or advice on how to proceed in any individual case.
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) uses data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) to estimate the risk of vaccination. For example, here the CDC calculated the percent risk (% risk) that a covid shot will result in a death report to VAERS (0.0019%). The % risk is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of vaccines, then multiplying by 100. For a quick run-down on how to calculate these risks, see this paper.
The problem with estimating risk from the raw number of VAERS death reports, like the CDC did here, is that most vaccine injuries aren’t reported to VAERS—which means it vastly underestimates the true risk.
The VAERS website says only a “small fraction” of vaccine injuries are reported (1). One study found that “fewer than 1%” of vaccine injuries were reported to VAERS (2). A reporting rate of 10% would be overly optimistic according to most estimates, and would mean there were 10 times more deaths from covid shots than were reported to VAERS. A less optimistic, but still realistic, reporting rate of 0.1% would mean there were 1000 deaths for every 1 reported to VAERS.
The following chart shows estimated deaths from COVID19 vaccines, based on the number of reported deaths, and the rate of VAERS reporting. At 100%, the deaths reported to VAERS (6,968) are assumed to be all that occurred, and to all be vaccine-related (not coincidental). The estimated number of deaths increases as the % reported to VAERS decreases, until at a 0.1% reporting rate, estimated deaths from covid vaccination approach 7 million.
Of course, we all know reports to VAERS don’t prove the vaccine caused the death—some deaths reported to VAERS could be coincidental. Counting coincidental deaths artificially inflates these death estimates, so keep that in mind. You can make adjustments for coincidence by selecting a higher % of vaccine injuries reported to VAERS than you otherwise would, which will estimate fewer deaths. This is a flexible chart with a wide range of possible estimates, not just one.
The estimated number of deaths can be used to calculate the percent risk of death from covid vaccination—like the CDC did above, but also taking into account the fact there were more deaths than there were VAERS reports. The chart below shows the estimated percent risk of death from covid vaccination, based on the estimate of actual deaths.
At 100%, the 6,968 deaths reported to VAERS are assumed to be all that occurred; with 363 million vaccines administered, that’s a 0.0019% risk. From there, the risk increases as the percent of deaths reported to VAERS decreases, and by the time you get to a 0.1% reporting rate, the theoretical risk of death from a covid shot is almost 2%.
The following chart shows a different way of expressing risk, as “1-in-x”. This risk is calculated by dividing the number of vaccines administered—363 million—by the estimated number of deaths.
Again, at 100%, the 6,968 deaths reported to VAERS are assumed to be all that occurred, and all vaccine-related. With 363 million vaccines administered, that’s a risk of about 1 in 52,000. From there, the risk increases as the percent of deaths reported to VAERS decreases, and when you reach a 0.1% reporting rate, the estimated risk of death per dose of COVID19 vaccine is 1 in 52.
“Advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
― Gandalf – J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring
“I don’t give advice, because long ago and far away, a wise fictional wizard advised against it.”
― Virginia Stoner, on some blog named after herself
(1) The VAERS website says only a “small fraction” of vaccine injuries are reported:
(2) One study found that “fewer than 1%” of vaccine injuries were reported to VAERS:
(3) Data table: