Putting the BC Covid Epidemic in Perspective.

R. McCarter , MSC

When is an emergency truly an emergency? 

When is an emergency so severe that we need to suspend our Charter of Rights and Freedoms?
Is the Covid epidemic so life-threatening that we need to suspend free speech, freedom of association, freedom of travel, the right to make our own health decisions and even the right to our own thoughts? 
Are the Covid mandates subject to debate from elected representatives, or are they the capricious whims of unelected health officials?

Recent polls suggest that up to 80% of Canadians approve of vaccine mandates, the coerced injection of experimental vaccines that have dubious efficacy and safety. However large the majority, democracies should not work by plebiscite nor should they follow the decisions of unelected bureaucrats.  That’s why we elect the best and brightest to represent us, knowledgable citizens who weigh the pros and cons, argue and vote to make the tough decisions. These are elected officials who know that government is there to protect the disadvantaged, to give everyone equal rights before the law and to prevent a tyranny of the majority. Elected citizens who know that Canada is bound by agreements like the Nuremberg Code and the Helsinki Accord to protect the rights of all people. Politicians who know that Canada has its own Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the immutable birthrights of Canadians.

Well, it’s a nice dream.

When is an emergency truly an emergency? I cannot make that decision for you but I can present the evidence for the dangers of the Covid epidemic here in British Columbia that will allow you to make the decision for yourself.

I have produced several graphs of Covid data that are freely available from the British Columbia Center for Disease Control BCCDCStatsCan and the BC Coroner’s Service.

The first graph is typical of the way Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths are presented in the BCCDC reports:

Screen Shot 2021-10-20 at 11.39.16 PM.png

  
To the unwary observer following the hills and valleys of this year’s cases, hospitalizations and deaths up to October 05, 2021, it would look like a large number of people infected with Covid end up in hospital and a large number of these die. But of course you have to read the scale to the right of the graph and realize that the scale has been expanded 10X. The plots for hospitalizations and deaths are ten times larger than they should be to compare with the number of cases, the correction would put the deaths plot so low as to be almost indistinguishable from the zero base line.

Is this distortion intentional, an attempt to keep the fear index pegged? Or is it just math geeks being statisticians and saying “of course you check the scales”?
But what groups are most affected by Covid? Surely it is important to establish whether your age makes you more vulnerable or not. Here is the money graph from the BCCDC: 

Screen Shot 2021-10-20 at 11.41.09 PM.png

Ok, hospitalizations to the left, deaths to the right, different scales, confusing dates, age groups rising and falling. Perhaps you fancy a graph like this but I prefer a graph that is quick and simple to interpret.

I hope my graphs are clearer, they are all histograms plotted for age groups. The first is a graph of the number of Covid cases identified over the 620 days of the Covid epidemic to October, 05 2021, compared to the population of British Columbia, broken into age groups.

Screen Shot 2021-10-21 at 12.04.04 AM.png



 The full height of each bar is the number of BC residents in that age group. Reading the graph there are about 200,000 BC residents who are between 80 and 89 years old, there are almost 800,000 residents between 30 and 39 years old. The small blue sections at the tops of each bar represent the number of Covid cases that have been identified in each age group.  It seems that only a small portion of BC residents have been exposed to Covid, however, it is important to note that not all cases are symptomatic.

Many residents may have been exposed to Covid, had no or modest symptoms and were not reported as cases.  It is presumed that the people who have recovered from Covid have a strong natural immunity to a second infection. To my knowledge, there have been no widespread or ongoing studies to determine the proportion of the BC public who have natural immunity.

The next graph takes those cases (blue) in the above graph and expands them to show the number of hospitalizations, ICU treatments and deaths:

Screen Shot 2021-10-20 at 11.43.34 PM.png

Remember from the first graph that cases were a small proportion of the BC population, now in this expansion you can see that hospitalization (green) and ICU (yellow) patients are a small proportion of a small proportion until we get to ages greater than 60, Deaths are almost nonexistent until age 50 and are an increasingly larger proportion of older age groups,

Deaths of course are the ultimate problem and the following graph shows the percentage of the people in each age group who have died from Covid:

Screen Shot 2021-10-20 at 11.44.25 PM.png

Although the size of the bars may seem alarming at first, note the scale on the left axis of the graph. The scale goes from 0 percent up to 1.0 percent. The graph has been expanded 100X. Over a period of 620 days, going on two miserable years, very few people have died under the age of 70. Even for those septuagenarians and octogenarians the deaths have been a fraction of one percent. The ninety year olds are taking the brunt of Covid with a 620 day mortality of slightly less than one percent of their population.

It is a sad fact of life that people die and there is therefore an expected death rate. Using StatsCan data on BC mortality I worked out the following graph of expected mortality for each age group and superimposed the Covid death rate on the histogram bars.

Screen Shot 2021-10-20 at 11.48.16 PM.png

The green bars represent the expected deaths over a 620 day period. Thankfully there are few deaths in those under 20 and then a progressively increasing number of deaths as we age. Most people die in their 70s and 80s, and the number of expected deaths drops in the 90s. The decreased number of expected deaths in the 90s is because there are far fewer people who reach their 10th decade.  Look closely and you will see the blue bars superimposed on the bottom of the green bars. These are the 620 days of covid deaths. It is this horror that has caused us to mask, lockdown, socially distance and treat others like pariahs as we strip our own Rights and Freedoms. 

Notice again that there are very few Covid related deaths under age 50 but then the argument becomes:
 ‘Every life is precious! Shouldn’t we do whatever it takes to save even these few lives?”

 
To quickly and compassionately agree would throw out any understanding of cost/benefit analysis, that social Newtonian concept that “every action has an unequal and unexpected  reaction Take a look at our other BC health crises compared to Covid:

 

Screen Shot 2021-10-21 at 12.02.20 AM.png

It is apparent that both suicide (green) and drug overdose (red) are more common in BC residents over age 20 and under age 70 while Covid (blue) mainly claims people over 60 years old. I calculate that the average age of the BC population is about 42.9 years old. The average age of people committing suicide is a little higher, about 48.2 years while the average age of overdoses is estimated at 44.0 years.  The average age of those dying from Covid is much higher, I calculate 80.9 years old. This is slightly lower than the normal life expectancy of BC residents of 82.4 years.

The differences in life expectancy suggest yet another graph, the number of person-years lost from Covid compared to the number of person-years lost by suicide and overdose. Person-years lost is determined by calculating the total loss of years of life for those who did not reach the normal life expectancy 82.4 years.  To make sure that the values are comparable, the person-years lost are calculated only for those people under 80 years old.

 

Screen Shot 2021-10-20 at 11.51.18 PM.png

Loss of person-years allows us to compare the costs of health tragedies, In this example, suicide has 3X the impact of Covid on those under 80 years old and overdoses have 11X the impact. This may seem counterintuitive if you have formed your perspective from the deluge of media coverage on Covid, the shortage of reporting on suicide and the irregular articles on overdoses.


If you have been tuned to the main stream media, you have been subjected to a relentless, 24/7, whenever you turn on the TV, wall to wall coverage of first this premier, then this health minister, followed by umteen health officials. Gripping Covid porn.  After nearly two years of assault, where the objective seems not to inform but to terrify, is there no wonder you have a distorted view on the dangers of Covid? Has this disorienting assault been intentional, has it been to protect you, reassure you, or to manipulate you?  

Fear is a powerful method of control, getting you to happily surrender your critical decision making, relinquishing your own mind to opaque, vested groups that could only have the best of intentions.

Mr. McCarter lives on Vancouver Island

18 thoughts on “Putting the BC Covid Epidemic in Perspective.

    • Brian (if I can be so bold to call you by your given name) I am a 70 year old who just had Covid. I needed no hospitalization. I was extremely tired and weak but no other ailments of Covid.
      That being said I am so glad you are stepping forward to give the facts. I pass your blog to as many people as I can but I’m not a influencer in the main stream. I don’t know how to spread the knowledge you share. I have gone to many sites to find a way to contact those that be and continually come to dead ends or the forewords are too many for me to comprehend. If you have contact information and can share many of your followers may have a format to get their supportive words out.
      THANK YOU for your continued commitment to this frightened unjust time in the country I have always thought was safe.

      Liked by 2 people

  1. Although the graphs are explained , They are not visible in the post. You also can not click on the png link to open it up. But Great points. Sharing.

    Like

  2. Señor Peckford;

    This post of yours was very timely, I just finished writing you the below thoughts and this post seems to be a perfect place to leave this reply.

    I’m writing you today with a profound sense of loss and, I suspect, and urgency that I never experienced before. Without meaning to sound melodramatic, I must confess that I feel somewhat complicit and extremely burdened by, it seems, societal actions akin to genocide, yes genocide, that we adults are about to inflict on our innocent, trusting and vulnerable children.

    How can governments, medical personnel, media, educators and parents promote a risky, really unknown, experimental mRNA materials gene therapy “pseudo vaccine” for a group of children that, for all intents and purposes, have virtually NO RISK from the Covid-19 virus (ie their survival from a Covid-19 is said to be in the 99.997% range).

    There is no risk/benefit analysis that justifies this child abuse, as it relates to KNOWN potential— “mRNA pseudo vaccine” —short term injuries for the children, and, we haven’t the foggiest idea of the long term risks that these innocent children may/will face as a result of this experiment. The margin of benefit to society and children in particular is just too small to justify these experimental injections for our children. These vaccination cabal actions are ruthless, unethical, unnecessary, immoral, irresponsible and, I believe, illegal.

    We have various governments (ie USA and Canada) that have pre-ordered millions of vials of these CHILD “pseudo vaccines” from Pfizer. This being the case when, and I quote from The Defender—children’s health Defense,

    “In a few short days, the FDA will likely recommend Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for children as young as 5 — even though according to CDC data, children are 107 times more likely to die from the vaccine, than from COVID.”

    Does this “child jab” make sense to any rational, thinking person—surely the answer must be, NO? Why in the name of all that is holy would we subject our children to this type of unnecessary risk, why would any competent doctor, politician, journalist, teacher, parent be promoting such irrationality.

    I can’t establish, even after hundreds of hours of research, with any degree of credibility, the heath rationale for this child abuse; I can establish very easily that the CDC, NIH, NIAID, Health Canada, WHO, and numerous Provincial Chief Medical Officers of Health have lied to us repeatedly about this virus. The burning question is WHY and why would I or parents now trust them regarding our precious children!!!!

    We are collectively about to undertake the biggest medical experiment ever conducted on our innocent children and, sadly, millions of parents seem to be chomping at the bit to get these experimental “needle contents” into these little bodies—jeez, are people willingly becoming “uninformed consent “psychopaths!!!

    How could I and many others not have compassion for the distraught parent(s) who, and make no mistake there will be many, see their child/ren develop myocarditis, pericarditis, blood disorders, and too many (one being a sufficient qualifier) children who will die from these injections.

    I leave you with this image, “a parent who agrees to the injection of these experimental materials into their child/ren are playing Russian Roulette with the child/ren. Some of these parents, where their child/ren become very ill or pass, will be placed on suicide watch when they finally realize they are complicit in the destruction of their child’s health and future.”

    At that juncture the child injection guillotine has been release, it’s too late, there is no turning back and the parent(s) will be left holding massive guilt for the rest of their lives. Will it benefit them to hear, “you were warned but your Hammer, Anvil and Stirrup refused to carry the message,” the answer is, I think not—however, the gnashing of teeth will be on display and the guilt placeholder will be moved around the “complicit table” with great deftness!!!

    Our children are the future of humanity, will we knowingly (or ought to know) sacrifice them on the altars of fear, ignorance and greed (FIG)?

    Might I suggest, in closing, that the propensity of humans to be irrational appears directly proportional to the fear which unearned trust, propaganda and censorship unleashes!!!

    Food for thought.

    Liked by 5 people

    • I agree and encourage you to pass you thought to schools, medical centres and hospitals. They need to be bombarded with OUR opinions.

      Continue to share the above thoughts with everyone you can think of. Mr. Peckford is fully aware and needs us to get the word out and spread. As they say ‘ I tell two people and they tell two people and they each tell two people’ .

      That’s one of they ways we can help Mr. Peckford and all the others who see and share the facts.

      Thank you for stepping up.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Reblogged this on In defense of human freedom and commented:
    The short answer here is that the threshold has not been met for justifying the suspension of Charter rights, which are meant to reflect and support our inalienable human rights endowed by God through Reason and Natural Law. It never should have been allowed to happen. This was not a true emergency by any stretch of the imagination. It was mass hysteria. But now that Pandora’s box has been opened — ie. state authoritarianism — it’s going to be very hard to put it back. There are strong political forces who want things to continue on this terrible trajectory until Canada is no longer a free nation, but is just another horrible dictatorship, so many other sad nations in human history.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I do not think we are free —-now!! That’s the problem —we have lost it right before our eyes. By electing the Liberals and NDP again to govern we have relinquished out rights and freedoms—the Conservatives are no better—we need to recognize that a total remake is necessary. Now , when we see that Manitoba judge say he will not interpret the law but rely on an unelected bureaucrat you know ——-

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Hello Mr. Peckford,

    From reading this, it seems you have included graphs in your email, but they’re not showing up. All I see is an empty box with a blue question mark in it.

    Marion McFall Hm: (780) 432.7731 Cell: (780) 995.2689 m2mcfall@gmail.com

    >

    Like

  5. I’ve forwarded this e mailbto both the mla and MP for this area. I am so damn tired of repeating myself over and over. Let’s go back to living!

    Like

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